AGP Executive Report

Tonga election fallout: Tonga’s coalition government is under fresh pressure after the Supreme Court found Lands Minister Dr Taniela Fusimalohi guilty of electoral bribery for donating a Starlink terminal during the 2025 campaign, making him the third senior minister convicted and raising the risk of by-elections and a wider cabinet reshuffle. Budget squeeze: MPs scrutinised Tonga’s budget over fuel prices and spending priorities, with lawmakers arguing the plan doesn’t directly tackle rising costs even as electricity subsidies receive $18m. Deep-sea mining governance: Tonga-linked deep seabed exploration firms (TOML) have filed new UNCLOS proceedings at ITLOS, challenging the International Seabed Authority’s compliance approach and seeking provisional measures—an issue that could affect future access to exploitation opportunities. Fuel shock warning: A Pacific-wide analysis flags how global oil price spikes expose Tonga and neighbours’ dependence on imported fuel, pushing inflation and threatening tourism unless renewable delivery accelerates. Financial crime alert: Tonga’s financial watchdog warns of AI-fuelled investment scams targeting communities via WhatsApp/Viber, using fake trading apps and “early withdrawals” to lure victims. Moana Pasifika business uncertainty: New Zealand Rugby says a decision on who may take over Moana Pasifika’s Super Rugby licence is due by 30 June, after liquidation and staff/player exits.

Tonga politics under pressure: Tonga’s coalition government is rocked again after Lands Minister Dr Taniela Fusimalohi was found guilty of electoral bribery for donating a Starlink terminal during the 2025 election campaign, following earlier convictions of Tourism Minister Semisi Sika and Finance Minister Lata Tangimana—raising the risk of by-elections and a cabinet reshuffle. Budget squeeze: MPs scrutinised Tonga’s budget over fuel prices and spending priorities, with lawmakers arguing the plan doesn’t directly tackle rising fuel costs even as electricity subsidies receive $18m. Moana Pasifika rescue talks: New Zealand Rugby says a decision on who may take over Moana Pasifika’s Super Rugby licence is due by 30 June, while NZ Foreign Minister Winston Peters says there’s still a pathway without a direct government bailout. Deep-sea mining governance: Tonga and Nauru-linked contractors (TOML and NORI) have filed UNCLOS cases at ITLOS against the International Seabed Authority, challenging compliance processes as exploitation rules remain unsettled. Financial crime warning: Tonga’s FMA warns of investment scams using fake trading platforms and WhatsApp/Viber recruitment, including cases linked to crypto accounts and withdrawal “fees.”

Moana Pasifika rescue: New Zealand Rugby says a decision on who takes over Moana Pasifika’s Super Rugby Pacific licence will be made by 30 June, with multiple proposals still under review after the club was liquidated. Tonga politics and risk: Tonga’s coalition faces fresh pressure after Lands Minister Dr Taniela Fusimalohi was convicted of electoral bribery for donating a Starlink terminal during the 2025 election campaign, adding to earlier convictions and raising the prospect of by-elections and cabinet reshuffles. Budget squeeze: Parliament budget debate focused on fuel prices and whether the government’s spending plans, including electricity support, adequately tackle cost-of-living pressures. Financial crime warning: Tonga’s FMA warns of AI deepfakes driving investment scams, including fake trading platforms that lure victims via community referrals and WhatsApp/Viber groups. Energy and resilience: A Pacific-wide analysis highlights how global oil shocks expose deep dependence on imported fuel, pushing the case for faster renewable roll-out. Maritime cooperation: A US Coast Guard patrol under Operation Blue Pacific included port calls in Nuku’alofa and Vava’u and assistance to Tongan Royal Navy operations in Tonga’s EEZ.

Moana Pasifika rescue talks: New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters says there’s still a pathway to keep the Pacific Super Rugby franchise alive, after owners moved to liquidation and warned of financial collapse—no direct government bailout, but potential new backers and a business model approach are being explored. Tonga election bribery fallout: Tonga’s Supreme Court has convicted Lands Minister Dr Taniela Fusimalohi of electoral bribery after he donated a Starlink terminal during the 2025 campaign; it follows earlier convictions of Tourism Minister Semisi Sika and Finance Minister Lata Tangimana, raising the risk of by-elections and cabinet reshuffles. Budget pressure points: Parliament’s budget debate focused on fuel costs and household impacts, with MPs questioning whether spending plans address rising prices and electricity subsidies. Financial crime warning: Tonga’s FMA warns of investment scams using AI deepfakes and fake trading platforms that lure communities via WhatsApp/Viber, then trap victims with withdrawal fees. Fisheries compliance support: Tonga received support to submit its first notification under the WTO Fisheries Subsidies Agreement, building capacity for more transparent, sustainable fisheries management. Regional energy vulnerability: A Pacific fuel crisis highlights how dependence on imported oil keeps economies exposed to global shocks, strengthening the case for faster renewable delivery.

Tonga Politics: Lands Minister Dr Taniela Fusimalohi has been convicted of election bribery after donating a Starlink terminal to his constituency, making him the third senior cabinet figure found guilty over 2025 election misconduct; earlier rulings also hit Tourism Minister Semisi Sika and Finance Minister Lata Tangimana, raising by-election and reshuffle risks for PM Lord Fakafanua’s government. Budget & Cost of Living: MPs scrutinised Tonga’s budget over fuel prices and spending priorities, with lawmakers pressing for stronger action as June fuel costs reportedly reached $5–$6 per litre, while officials pointed to global drivers. Trade & Fisheries Compliance: Tonga’s Fish Fund-supported work helped it submit its first notification under the WTO Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies, building capacity for transparency and sustainable fisheries management. Outer Islands Water Security: A solar-powered desalination project is now producing up to 4,300 litres of fresh water daily for Hunga and Matamaka, cutting reliance on costly water deliveries. Regional Security & Drugs: PM Fakafanua warned Tonga is vulnerable to regional drug trafficking given Fiji’s surge in busts, calling for tighter information-sharing and preparedness. Pacific Business & Innovation: EU/FAO-backed Agri-Innovate efforts in Samoa showcased agrifood entrepreneurs and agribusiness pitches, supporting MSMEs across the region.

Election & Governance Fallout: Tonga’s political crisis deepened after Lands Minister Dr Taniela Fusimalohi was found guilty of election bribery for donating a Starlink terminal during the 2025 campaign, following earlier rulings against Tourism Minister Semisi Sika (undeclared TOP$10,000 payment) and Finance Minister Lata Tangimana (fish to constituents). Legal & Political Risk: Under Tonga law, bribery findings can mean an MP is “unseated,” with the Speaker formally notified—raising the prospect of by-elections and a major cabinet reshuffle. Sports Business Watch: New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters says Moana Pasifika can still be saved, ruling out a direct government bailout and pushing for a sustainable business model after liquidation fears. Regional Security & Trade: Tonga is also stepping up its fight against drug trafficking, with PM Lord Fakafanua warning that Fiji’s surge in busts shows Tonga’s proximity demands heightened preparedness. Fisheries & Compliance: Tonga supported its first notification under the WTO Fisheries Subsidies Agreement, building capacity via the Fish Fund as transparency becomes a key ocean-economy requirement. Water Infrastructure: A solar-powered desalination project is now producing up to 4,300 litres/day for Hunga and Matamaka, cutting reliance on costly water deliveries. Cybercrime Cooperation: Fiji is driving Pacific-wide cybercrime law coordination, with Tonga among the legal teams working on a regional handbook to strengthen digital defenses.

Election & Governance Shock: Tonga’s political crisis deepened after Lands Minister Dr Taniela Fusimalohi was found guilty of election bribery for donating a Starlink terminal during the 2025 campaign, making him the third senior minister convicted over election-related misconduct; earlier rulings also hit Tourism Minister Semisi Sika for failing to declare a TOP$10,000 payment to a dance academy, while Finance Minister Lata Tangimana was convicted for providing fish to constituents (he has resigned but is appealing), and Deputy PM Dr Viliami Latu was acquitted—now raising the risk of MPs being “unseated,” by-elections, and a major cabinet reshuffle. Sports & Community Business: New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters says Moana Pasifika can still be saved, ruling out a direct government bailout and pushing for a sustainable business model after the club was placed into liquidation. Trade, Compliance & Fisheries: Tonga moved ahead on WTO fisheries transparency, with a workshop in Nuku’alofa supporting its first notification under the Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies. Water Security Investment: A solar-powered desalination project is now producing up to 4,300 litres of fresh water per day for Hunga and Matamaka, cutting reliance on costly water deliveries. Regional Security & Drugs: Tonga’s PM warns of rising regional drug trafficking risk, citing increased large-scale busts in Fiji and calling for stronger information-sharing and enforcement. Cybercrime Coordination: Fiji is pushing Pacific-wide cybercrime legal coordination, with Tonga among countries working on a regional handbook to strengthen laws and defenses.

Maritime & Trade: Tonga’s fisheries push got a boost as the WTO Fish Fund supported Tonga’s first notification under the Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies, with a Nuku’alofa workshop laying groundwork for better reporting on managed stocks and vessel lists. Deep-Sea Resources: Mining companies backed by Nauru and Tonga have filed UNCLOS claims against the International Seabed Authority over possible non-compliance with deep-sea exploration contracts, adding friction to the race for seabed minerals. Governance & Elections: Tonga’s electoral bribery case escalated as Lands Minister Dr Taniela Fusimalohi was found guilty after donating a Starlink terminal, joining other cabinet-linked convictions and raising the risk of by-elections and reshuffles. Water Security: A solar-powered desalination project is now producing up to 4,300 litres of fresh water per day for Hunga and Matamaka, cutting reliance on costly water deliveries. Security & Migration: Tonga’s PM flagged rising regional drug trafficking risks due to Fiji’s surge in busts, while Pacific leaders also warned migration pressures are climbing amid conflicts, economic shocks and climate impacts. Regional Digital Safety: Fiji is driving Pacific-wide cybercrime law coordination, with Tonga among countries working on a regional legal handbook to strengthen digital border protection.

Court Rulings & Governance: Tonga’s electoral bribery case widens as Lands Minister Dr Taniela Fusimalohi is found guilty over a Starlink terminal donation, Tourism Minister Semisi Sika is convicted for an undeclared $10,000 payment, and Finance Minister Lata Tangimana is convicted for providing fish to constituents (resigning but appealing). Deputy PM Dr Viliami Latu was acquitted, but the rulings could trigger by-elections and a cabinet reshuffle. Water Security: A solar-powered desalination “miracle from heaven” is now producing up to 4,300 litres/day for Hunga and Matamaka, cutting reliance on costly boat-delivered water. Budget Watch: Parliament is set to resume debate on Tonga’s 2026/27 Budget Estimates, following a Finance and Public Accounts Committee review. Drug & Border Risk: PM Lord Fakafanua warns Tonga’s proximity makes it vulnerable to regional drug trafficking, pointing to rising enforcement needs and wastewater testing to track use. Regional Cybercrime Push: Fiji is driving Pacific-wide coordination on cybercrime laws, with Tonga among countries working on a regional legal handbook. Moana Pasifika Rescue Talks: New Zealand Rugby Players Association says a Samoa-and-Tonga-led business plan could decide Moana Pasifika’s future within weeks after liquidation and $8m+ debts. Energy Costs: Fuel prices keep climbing across the Pacific, with Tonga’s central bank warning double-digit inflation risk tied to energy costs.

Cybercrime & Justice: Pacific legal experts in Fiji are finalising a regional handbook to strengthen cybercrime laws and defenses, with Tonga among the participating countries. Water Security: A solar-powered desalination project is now producing up to 4,300 litres of fresh water per day for Tonga’s remote islands Hunga and Matamaka, cutting reliance on costly water deliveries. Agribusiness & Jobs: Samoa’s EU/FAO-backed Agri-Innovate Competition 2026 is spotlighting agrifood entrepreneurs and MSMEs through pitch and awards events under the STODAS programme. Trade & Compliance: New EU freezer-vessel food safety rules are set to affect about 97% of Pacific Island-flagged vessels exporting to the EU, with national authorities trained to meet the -18°C brine requirement. Energy Costs: Fuel prices keep climbing across the Pacific; Tonga’s central bank warning links the risk of double-digit inflation to ongoing fuel pressures. Regional Finance & Governance: Parliament is set to convene budget debate on Tuesday as MPs receive briefings on the 2026/2027 Budget Estimates. Land & Banking: Tonga’s Land Court rejected Tonga Development Bank’s bid to dismiss a land claim, keeping a long-running dispute tied to a loan and lease possession on track for trial.

Outer-Island Water Security: Tonga’s Hunga and Matamaka are getting a solar-powered desalination boost, with a containerised system producing up to 4,300 litres of fresh water a day to cut reliance on costly boat deliveries. Agribusiness & EU Funding: Samoa’s Agri-Innovate Competition 2026 finale showcased agrifood entrepreneurs under the EU-funded STODAS programme (FAO-led), supporting MSMEs across Fiji, Samoa and Solomon Islands. Energy Cost Pressure: Pacific fuel prices keep climbing; Samoa has moved to an “amber alert” footing and diesel caps have jumped sharply, while Tonga’s central bank warns fuel-linked inflation risks. Food Safety for Exports: New EU freezer-vessel rules are set to affect about 97% of Pacific Island-flagged vessels exporting to the EU, with training for national authorities underway. Moana Pasifika Rescue Talks: A decision on the Super Rugby franchise could come within weeks as Samoa and Tonga-led plans progress after liquidation and reported debts of over US$4.69m. Land Court Ruling: Tonga Development Bank’s bid to strike out a land claim failed, with the court saying the issues must be tested at trial. Geopolitics & Seabed Minerals: Pacific seabed mining is increasingly tied to US-China competition, with Tonga among countries in new or explored arrangements.

Tonga Budget Watch: Parliament will convene Tuesday, 9 June to continue deliberations on the 2026/2027 Budget Estimates, with MPs receiving a briefing on the 2026 Budget review ahead of the Finance and Public Accounts Committee reporting. Land & Finance: The Land Court rejected Tonga Development Bank’s bid to strike out a land claim, meaning the dispute over Lease No. 5442 in Ma‘ufanga will proceed to trial. Fuel & Inflation Pressure: Tonga’s central bank warning of double-digit inflation this year is tied to rising fuel costs across the Pacific, with Samoa and Fiji also tightening energy supply measures and diesel caps. Maritime Security: PM Fakafanua says illegal vessels may have entered Tonga undetected in the past due to limited monitoring capacity, as new tracking tech rolls out to strengthen surveillance of the EEZ. Regional Business & Trade: EU freezer rules are set to affect most Pacific Island vessels exporting tuna to the EU, raising compliance pressure for exporters. Moana Pasifika Funding Crisis: A decision on the franchise’s future is expected within weeks as Samoa and Tonga-led plans to save Moana Pasifika gain traction amid liquidation and licence discussions. Women & Vulnerable Communities: Pacific women leaders urged governments to turn regional commitments into practical action as fuel prices, supply chain strain, conflict and climate impacts hit hardest.

Tonga Land & Finance: The Land Court rejected Tonga Development Bank’s bid to strike out Vila Malia Vaka’uta’s land claim, saying the dispute over Lease No. 5442 in Ma‘ufanga needs a full trial, after the Bank argued the case was filed outside the 10-year limit. Budget Watch: Tonga’s Parliament is set to convene Tuesday, 9 June, to continue deliberations on the 2026/27 Budget Estimates, following a Finance and Public Accounts Committee review and a UNDP-supported briefing workshop for MPs. Maritime Security & Drugs: PM Fakafanua said illegal vessels may have entered Tonga’s waters undetected in the past due to limited monitoring capacity, as new maritime tracking tech rolls out to strengthen surveillance of the EEZ amid ongoing concerns about illicit drug flows. Regional Economy & Energy Costs: A Pacific fuels update flags rising pressure on household and public services from higher diesel and power costs, with Tonga’s central bank warning inflation could reach double digits this year tied to fuel prices. Trade Compliance: EU freezer rules are set to affect about 97% of Pacific Island-flagged freezer vessels exporting to the EU, after auditors found vessels failing to meet required brine temperatures. Sports Pathways: Tonga’s secondary schools rugby league teams are preparing for the Pacific Secondary Schools Championship, aiming to build elite exposure and teamwork ahead of the weekend tournament.

Tonga Land Court: The Tonga Development Bank’s bid to strike out Vila Malia Vaka’uta’s land claim was rejected, with the court saying the dispute needs proper trial review over a Ma‘ufanga lease and a long-running debt/possession arrangement. Budget & governance: Parliament is set to resume on Tuesday, 9 June, to continue the 2026/27 Budget Estimates, following a Finance and Public Accounts Committee review and a UNDP-supported briefing workshop for MPs. Energy costs & inflation watch: Tonga’s central bank warning about potential double-digit inflation is tied to fuel price pressure across the Pacific, with Samoa moving to an “amber alert” and power-shedding risk as diesel caps surge. Maritime security: PM Fakafanua says illegal vessels may have entered Tonga’s waters undetected in the past due to limited monitoring capacity, as new tracking tech rolls out to strengthen surveillance of the EEZ. Regional business & trade compliance: EU freezer rules are set to affect about 97% of Pacific Island-flagged vessels exporting to the EU, after training for national food-safety authorities on the new -18°C brine requirements. Sports with economic spillovers: Moana Pasifika’s future could be decided within weeks as liquidation follows $8m+ debts, with Samoa and Tonga-led plans among options to keep Pacific rugby pathways alive.

Land & Finance: Tonga Development Bank has lost a bid to throw out a land claim by Vila Malia Vaka’uta, with the Land Court saying the dispute over a Ma‘ufanga lease needs proper trial review. Parliament & Budget: Tonga’s Legislative Assembly will sit Tuesday, 9 June, to continue work on the 2026/27 Budget Estimates after a Finance and Public Accounts Committee briefing workshop. Energy Costs: Pacific fuel pressure remains a major economic drag, with Tonga’s central bank warning of possible double-digit inflation linked to fuel prices, while other Pacific states move to higher diesel caps or fuel alerts. Maritime Security: PM Fakafanua says illegal vessels may have entered Tonga’s waters undetected in the past due to limited monitoring capacity, as new tracking tech rolls out for the EEZ. Regional Rugby Economics: Moana Pasifika’s future is expected to become clearer within weeks as liquidation follows debts of over $8m and discussions focus on a Samoa-and-Tonga-led plan. Food Exports: New EU freezer rules are set to affect most Pacific Island vessels exporting to the EU, pushing compliance upgrades for fisheries operators. Women & Vulnerability: Pacific women leaders warn global conflict is raising costs and hitting women and vulnerable communities hardest, urging commitments to shift into practical action.

Parliament & Budget: Tonga’s Legislative Assembly will sit on Tuesday 9 June to continue deliberations on the 2026/27 Budget Estimates, with the Finance and Public Accounts Committee set to report on its review of the 2026 Budget. Energy Costs & Inflation Watch: A Pacific Business Brief flags fuel price pressure across the region, linking Tonga’s central bank warning of possible double-digit inflation this year directly to rising fuel costs. Regional Health & Security: A Lowy Institute expert warns Tonga is showing “warning signs” of an expanding illicit drug trade, with meth traces reportedly appearing in Tonga wastewater and health risks rising alongside HIV and TB concerns. Super Rugby Finance Shock: Moana Pasifika’s future could be decided within weeks as Samoa and Tonga-led discussions gather momentum after liquidation and reported debts over US$4.69m. Maritime Monitoring & Illicit Activity: PM Fakafanua says illegal vessels may have entered Tonga’s waters undetected in the past due to limited monitoring capacity, as new tracking tech rolls out. Women Leaders & Costs: Pacific women leaders urge action over policy as global conflict drives up costs, with women and vulnerable communities hit hardest.